US Economy Adds 311,000 Jobs in February; Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.6%
According to the Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment snapshot, released on Friday, the US economy gained 311,000 jobs in February.[0] The unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent, above the expectation for 3.4 percent, amid a tick higher in the labor force participation rate to 62.5 percent, its highest level since March 2020.[1] The Bureau of Labor Statistics' survey of households, used to calculate the unemployment rate, revealed a 177,000 decrease.[2] A more encompassing unemployment measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose to 6.8 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point.[2]
Average hourly earnings — a closely watched metric as the Fed seeks to evaluate the impact of rising wages on inflation — grew 0.2 percent month-on-month and were up 4.6 percent over the year before.[3] That was below the estimate for 4.7 percent.[4]
Leading the way in payroll growth among major industries was leisure and hospitality, adding 105,000 jobs.[5] In February, two major industries, information and transportation & warehousing, experienced a decrease.[5] An additional 46,000 jobs were added by the government, and professional and business services experienced a rise of 45,000.[6]
Analysts at Commerzbank are bullish on the US labor market and expect another solid jobs report.[7] Economists on Wall Street are forecasting that the February jobs report will show a gain of 220,000 new jobs.[8] Despite the 517,000 jobs gained in January, the economy would still have added over 300,000 jobs in the first two months of the year if a significant decrease of 100,000 new jobs were to occur – which is far too strong for the Federal Reserve.[8]
The jobs report makes it likely that the Fed will go through with raising interest rates when they gather again March 21-22.[9] But traders priced in less of a chance that the central bank will accelerate to a 0.5 percentage point increase, dropping the likelihood to 48.4 percent, or about a coin flip, according to a CME Group estimate.[2]
A 517,000 jobs increase in the economy was noted in January's surprisingly positive jobs report, which follows this current one.[10] The January numbers were revised down but only slightly to 504,000 jobs.[11] Revisions to payroll growth in October and November showed a decrease of 34,000 jobs when compared to the December data.[12]
0. “February jobs report: U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs” Axios, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.axios.com/2023/03/10/us-february-jobs-report-2023
1. “Another strong jobs report complicates the inflation outlook” The Boston Globe, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/03/10/business/another-strong-jobs-report-complicates-inflation-outlook/
2. “Payrolls rose 311,000 in February, more than expected, showing solid growth” CNBC, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/jobs-report-february-2023.html
3. “The US economy added 311,000 jobs in February, outpacing expectations” CNN, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/economy/february-jobs-report-final/index.html
4. “US economy added 311,000 jobs in February, exceeding expectations” NBC News, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/payrolls-rose-311000-february-expected-jobs-growth-stays-hot-rcna74329
5. “The US added 311,000 jobs in February, unemployment rate at 3.6%” Business Insider, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.businessinsider.com/job-growth-unemployment-rate-recession-outlook-february-jobs-report-2023-3
6. “US hiring boom continued in February with 311000 added jobs” The Guardian, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/10/us-jobs-report-february-2023
7. “Nonfarm Payrolls hike by 311,000 in February vs. 205,000 expected” FXStreet, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-nonfarm-payrolls-forecast-analyzing-february-nfp-release-202303100700
8. “Why Friday's Jobs Report Won't Save The S&P 500 From Fed Hawks” Investor's Business Daily, 9 Mar. 2023, https://www.investors.com/news/economy/why-a-soft-jobs-report-wont-save-the-sp-500-from-fed-hawks/
9. “February's Jobs Report Brings More Confusing Economic News” TIME, 10 Mar. 2023, https://time.com/6261754/february-jobs-report
10. “Economy adds 311K jobs in February, unemployment rises to 3.6 percent” The Hill, 10 Mar. 2023, https://thehill.com/business/economy/3893074-jobs-report-economy-inflation-labor-unemployment
11. “Gold price gains as U.S. jobs number beats expectations in February, but unemployment rate climbs” Kitco NEWS, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-03-10/Gold-price-gains-as-U-S-jobs-report-beats-expectations-in-February-but-January-number-revised-down.html
12. “Jobs Report: Soft Wage Growth Offsets Strong Hiring” Investor's Business Daily, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.investors.com/news/economy/jobs-report-soft-wage-growth-offsets-strong-hiring-sp-500-futures-rise/
