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US Jobless Claims Reach 10-Week High, Despite Tight Labor Market

US Jobless Claims Hit 10-Week High of 211K

On Thursday, the US Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims jumped by 21,000 to 211,000, up from the previous week's unrevised estimate of 190,000 claims. This is the highest figure in 10 weeks, suggesting a softening in the labor market.^[0]

Continuing jobless claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more, rose by the most since November 2021.^[0] The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% for the week ending March 4, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.^[1]

In the week to Saturday, the initial weekly jobless claims fell by 20,000 to 192,000, surprising the markets with a bigger-than-expected drop.^[2] The four-week moving average dropped to 1,676,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the prior week's revised average of 197.25K.^[3]

This week Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell informed Congress that if economic data remains positive, the central bank could raise interest rates more quickly. However, no decisions have been made concerning their next policy meeting.^[0]

Overall, the latest figures suggest that the US labor market remains tight despite the recent increase in jobless claims. However, projections from the central bank's December meeting show that officials expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% by the end of next year, up from the current rate of 3.5%.^[4]

0. “US jobless claims jump to 211,000, led by New York, California, shows data” Business Standard, 9 Mar. 2023, https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-jobless-claims-jump-to-211-000-led-by-new-york-california-shows-data-123030901049_1.html

1. “Jobless claims rise more than expected in past week” Seeking Alpha, 9 Mar. 2023, https://seekingalpha.com/news/3945927-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected-in-past-week

2. “New York City unemployment claims drop” Crain's New York Business, 16 Mar. 2023, https://www.crainsnewyork.com/economy/new-york-city-unemployment-claims-drop

3. “Jobless claims drops 20K to 192K” Seeking Alpha, 16 Mar. 2023, https://seekingalpha.com/news/3948145-jobless-claims-dropd-20k-to-192k

4. “Jobless claims rise sharply to highest level since December” Fox Business, 9 Mar. 2023, https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-rise-sharply-highest-level-december